TUgis Conference 2018

Due to the close proximity to water in Talbot County, the historic villages of Neavitt, Newcomb, Royal Oak, and Tilghman are susceptible to damaging flooding events. Projected sea level change (SLC) and annual-chance flood events greatly increase the risk and vulnerability of structures in the villages. Identifying historic structures most vulnerable to such flood events is critical to determining mitigation measures that can be implemented by property owners to minimize losses from future flooding.

The ESRGC calculated first finished floor flooding and its corresponding damage to building in the historic villages for various flood scenarios for 2015, 2050, and 2100. The process utilizes U.S. Army Corps of Engineers SLC estimates, Federal Emergency Management Agency forecast periodic flooding, Maryland Department of Planning recorded parcel information, Talbot County addressed building footprints, HAZUS–MH damage curve coefficients, and LiDAR collected land elevations to model potential loss.

Periodic flood estimates provided through FEMA’s Flood Insurance Study for Talbot County are modeled over observed land elevations to return inundation levels for the study year. Inundation levels were overlaid on county building footprints to determine the maximum flooding observed within each building.

Flooding of the buildings’ first finished floors was established by subtracting recorded foundation heights from maximum flood depths. A damage rate for each building was then determined by applying the HAZUS damage curve which made use of the buildings descriptions and its first finished floor flooding. Financial loss estimates were produced by multiplying parcels’ improved value and the corresponding building damage rate.

The end products address building footprints within the four historic villages of Talbot County’s Historic Building Risk Assessment study, with damage and loss assessment based on projected SLC, forecast periodic flooding, building description, estimated first finished floor flooding, and the corresponding damage curve.